So - unfortunately we ran out of time to finish the game and had to walk away after the Spring 1944 turn. The VP level was such that the game would not be decided for at least another two turns and we did not have the time on Monday evening to play it to a conclusion.
The Allies were firmly established in France - though German counterattacks had pushed them back out of Paris. The Luftwaffe was concentrated in France, though through attrition was dwindling fast. In the Med the Allies had landed in Siciliy, and had advanced out of Tunisia to take all of Libya, but an out of supply Axis force still held on to Alexandria in Egypt.
On the Russian front, a couple of turns of no German reinforcements had weakened both army groups north and south. The Russians were over the Dnepr and had finally relieved Leningrad and were pushing the Germans back into Lithuania and Poland.
The next two turns I think would have decided things. It is really amazing how quickly the Germans can collapse the last year and a half of the game. Facing attrition on all fronts, there just are not enough reinforcements to hold back the tide everywhere. On the other hand, the Allies need to be taking back VPs very aggressively. It would have been a hard fight for Paris - and I am not sure we would have taken it by Autumn 1944. The Russians were advancing, but I am not sure if the crucial VPs of Warsaw and Ploesti would have been in our hands by Autumn (I am pretty confident the Russians would have gotten Riga, Kieve and forced the Finns out of the war by Autumn - but that only would buy the Allies another 3 VPs).
In the Med, the Allies did not have a lot of resources to do to much. I don't think we would have gotten to Rome by Autumn, but perhaps taken Naples and liberated Alexandria now that it was out of supply for a gain of 2 VPs.
So, if the Axis were to hold Paris (as well as Warsaw, Ploesti, Rome) they would have had 20VPs by the end of Autumn and won the game. Had they lost any one of those the game would have continued into the Winter. So - it was close - which is a lot of fun when you get down to the endgame. Hopefully, the next game we play at Origins will come down to the 1945 wire as well!