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WWII: Struggle for Europe____WWII: Struggle for Asia => WWII discussion forum => Topic started by: Mark on April 04, 2007, 09:57:08 AM
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If Germany would not have launched Barbarossa - Would the Soviet Union eventually have gone to war with Germany? What would trigger Stalin to declare war?
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Either that Stalin thought he was missing out on the party if the western allies were looking to beat Germany.
Or that Hitler was beginning to make demands for surrounding countries Stalin couldn´t accept.
Or something completely else....
Daniel
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stalin was buying time in 40-41. it was inevitable for nazi germany and bolshevik russia to go to war. russia would have kept expanding its sphere of influence in the balkans and got into a war with germany or declared war when they were ready (probably in 42) or if germany looked too weak (or too strong)
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Stalin was building line of fortification in the Soviet Union: the "Stalin Line". He may have just sit tight until the Germans attacked him regardless of what was going on around him
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The russians were just buying time. Both Stalin and Hitler saw that war was inevitable and were building up for a showdown. Stalin was counting on France to wear the Germans out so that he could have his way in eastern europe. When France fell like it did, I think he knew he only had a limited amount of time before the Germans came after him. Ideally, he would not have gone to war with Germany until they had a "second front" that would distract some of the German forces though.
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Here is my opinion as stated up in the General Discussion section in a different thread:
I highly doubt that Stalin was going to attack (which is part of the basis of my discussions with Mark).
And if he was, then he deserved to be crushed because of his own stupidity.
His army wasn't in any shape to mount an offensive because of antiquated equipment and his purge of most of the effective officers. Its inadequacies were exposed when the Germans attacked.
I could see the USSR demanding certain concessions (influence in places like Romania and Bulgaria) from the Axis as time went on, especially if the Germans hadn't attacked them and if the Germans were weakened by their activities in the West, but that doesn't mean they would be in a position to mount a full scale invasion.
Craig
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Both Hitler & Stalin knew a fight was brewing. Just like street gangs who've claimed their territory but what they have now just ain't enough!
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Both Hitler & Stalin knew a fight was brewing. Just like street gangs who've claimed their territory but what they have now just ain't enough!
But in this case, knowing that a fight will eventually happen and/or you want more doesn't mean that it will happen soon or that you are actually ready to start a fight. :-\
Craig
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His army wasn't in any shape to mount an offensive because of antiquated equipment and his purge of most of the effective officers. Its inadequacies were exposed when the Germans attacked.
Craig
I don't know if Stalin thought of the Red Army as out of shape and full of antiquated equipment and poorly led. He had more tanks and planes than anyone, had just developed arguably the best tank of the war in 1941 (the T34) and had gotten rid of what he viewed as disloyal officers. Rather than fearing for his life, he may have been thinking his army was ready to go!
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There was a lot of mistrust and uncertainty between the Soviet Union and Germany.
As far as game play is concerned, I don't think you can just say, "the Soviet Union can't declare war" and give the Germans a free hand not to worry about them. That is unrealistic. Hitler was increasingly worried about the Russians and did not trust Stalin. You have to model escalating tensions and uncertainty that existed - anything else gives Germany too much of a free ride to ignore Russia - which I think is really unrealistic.
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There was a lot of mistrust and uncertainty between the Soviet Union and Germany.
As far as game play is concerned, I don't think you can just say, "the Soviet Union can't declare war" and give the Germans a free hand not to worry about them. That is unrealistic. Hitler was increasingly worried about the Russians and did not trust Stalin. You have to model escalating tensions and uncertainty that existed - anything else gives Germany too much of a free ride to ignore Russia - which I think is really unrealistic.
Fine.
But the mechanism that is used in the regular rules is not correct either.
The fact that the USSR can declare war in the Summer of 1941 (and the USA can delcare war in the Spring of 1942) regardless of what is actually happen on the gameboard is misguided.
Craig
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well, it is a game - and what is included in the basic rules is a simple mechanism to get the full world war rolling and play the game out. For those folks who like a little more historical flavor and uncertainty - the optional event trigger rules for Soviet and U.S. entry are now included - and can continue to be refined based on player's input.
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Don't worry, you are going to get my input this weekend. ;D
Craig
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I wish I can quote the different books I had read; dosn't mean it was true just because some one wrote it, but the Soviet Union was just using their time to build up there forces. In fact supposedly Stalin had knew that Germany was going to attack. Despite the non-aggresion treaty.
We knew Hitler had planned on it no matter what. "Elbow space" for the German people. He just thought that they would fall quickly. They viewed USSR as the weaker of the US, UK / USSR sides. I mean they viewed that they won them in WWI and would do so again with no problem.
This is "ONE" of the reasons that he decided to attack USSR rather than do Sea Lion. (Arguing if they would of been succesful with Sea Lion is a totaly different subject.)
I do believe that Stalin would of declared war on Germany as soon as he saw they were starting to have difficluties (if they would of had difficluties), unfourtantly I can't take credit for that train of thought either because it is a generaly held belief that he would of eventually done so to help keep control of his population. I just do not believe that it would of been in 41 either. (Althought I do like the game as it is set up. It helps keep everyone involved in tha game. Do believe it would be fun to do a what if senario to see what would happen with USSR completly out of the picture except for some house rules on them entering on different triggers. Like in 42' or 43'. Might be fun.
Sean
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Stalin did want to increase the Soviet influence beyond its 1939 borders by making the non-aggression pact with Germany Stalin was able to attack Finland, annex the Baltic States and Bessarabia, and occupy the eastern half of Poland. The Soviets also occupied parts of Iran prior to the German invasion.
Although the Winter War proved just how bad the Soviet Army was they were still able to “win” the war and get concessions from Finland and it did give its officers some badly needed field experience.
So I guess what I am saying is that Stalin was probably not going to sit back and watch forever, I am sure he would have either attacked some small country that he thought would be easy overrun while the Western Allies and Germany were pre-occupied or if it looked bad for Germany would have attacked like they did in the Far East against Japan once the war was all but won to get their share of the concessions from being on the winning side.
David
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Germany believed that by mid 1942 the Soviet Union would be to strong to attack so it had to be 1941 ! The Soviet Union was building up its armed forces ! The Soviet Union was hopping for a long hard war between Germany and Britain / France. The Soviet Union was plaining to attack Germany after she weakend herself against the western allies. But there was no weakening ! British aircraft production jummped ahead of Germany's in 1939 and Germany could never cetch up. Germany's only chance to invade Britain was 1940 !
{Note: Germany did build more aircraft than Britain did in 1944 but it was far less in total millions of tons of aircraft built (4 Engine Bombers). Britian like America decided in mid 1943 not to expaned there aircraft production to there full potential ( 50 thousand aircraft per year Britian and 150 thousand aircaft per year America) because it no longer was needed and this production capabuility could be used for other war machines.
There are 2 ways to show the start of WWII in a game, script the rules to start when the war did or use the political what if's. The best I beleive is have both. Script the game to kick off during historical time lines then have optional rules for the political what if's. This will then keep all happy !
Joe
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It would be interesting to hear from someone who has really reviewed & researched this historical topic. The big picture here is the politics between Germany & Russia plus the logistics. In any case Hitler got to greedy too quickly.