After (MANY!) games, it seems that the balance between German subs and British convoy defense seems to have a problem - not much of one, but just enough to give me pause to think about and discuss it here.
The possibility of the the Brits getting lucky with a few ASW hits early, or maybe not too early, but say while sub production is still being ramped up, tends to unduly discourage the Germans from pursuing an agressive sub production strategy. I say this only after having observed many games. Of course I've seen it go the other way where the Brits (usually me...) can't kill a sub for love or money. The system as it stands does average out game-to-game, but it seems to me that the game places an undue high risk to the Germans on even attempting a serious sub strategy.
Anyway, the above is just a complex way to say that I think the ASW die rolls need to be averaged out a bit better - keep the relative loss ratios the same, but increase the number of die rolls to make things more 'average'.
My thought is to basically cut sub and DD production costs in half, but double the probability of killing the subs and DD's. Subs would cost 2,2, DD's cost say 2,2,1, with subs doing 1D3 of convoy damage. Convoy-defending DD's kill subs on a 1-4, other defending ASW kill subs on a 1-3. Offensive attacks against subs hit on a 1-2. In surface battles DD's hit on a 1, but only absorb 1/2 hit (ouch - I hate this last point). Maybe it might be better to have a sub-chaser unit, though I hate introducing yet a new unit type (maybe make it's cost a 2,2 or something and it has a zero surface attack ability?).
Anyway, I can't say I'm wild about this whole idea, but right now it's a huge risk for the Germans to consider persuing a strong sub strategy. A strong sub strategy requires building a good 8 to 12 subs at a minimum (I think). The Brits getting a bit lucky on just a few early ASW die rolls puts a tremendous risk that the Germans cannot ameliorate over 'the long run' in that particular game, and which I think might be usefully addressed by averaging things out a bit better.
dd