I can't tell what is happening until I see what they are doing.
Our early play was almost always the direct opposite of what they are reporting. If you remember from our game sessions that we posted, we kept having the game blow up with the Axis shooting out into the Middle East. Then the Japanese jumping into the action to complete the domination by taking the rest of the needed VPs for the win.
We had the shifting of Mech units away from Poland down to a fine art such that we could have France taken care of by the end of the Spring '40 Turn. Which then set up the time to reposition for the Summer '41 turn of Barbarossa.
And if things went well in the Atlantic and the Middle East, the Barbarossa attack became secondary since German and Italian units would be in Persia, Turkey may have gone their way, and now India is threatened on two fronts.
As for China, as long as you maintain enough Japanese units to in key spots you force the Chinese to stay back in the mountains defending their ICs. Meanwhile, you are working your way into India, DEI, Philippines, etc.
Again, it is one of the situations where you need to play some other people to get an idea of what is possible.