Wow - I missed the Leningrad attack from the pics - that must have been fairly dramatic - defended it with only a fort left, huh? Well, the Order of Lenin for those guys I guess. . .
Victory points are pretty important (they are how you win the game after all
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In the games I have witnessed, the Axis have actually won more than they have lost. but the consensus is that the Allies have a slight advantage - but that they are tougher to play because they are more challenging to coordinate and have to react with appropriate force and timing.
Maybe the combination of good strategy and luck have provided the Allies an advantage in your current game - but don't write the Axis off yet - lots can happen in the next 6 turns. THe Axis may be able to swing things around in Russia and the Pacific and Fortress Europe can be a hard nut to crack.
The European Axis can usually get 19 Victory points by this stage of the game (Norway (1), Berlin (3), Munch (1), Paris (3), Rome (3), Tripoli (1), Tobruk (1), Greece (1), Romania (1), Hungary (1), Warsaw (1), Kiev (1) and Kharkov (1)). The Axis in your game are off of this total by a few.
In the Pacific, the Japanese can usually get to about 17 VP's pretty quickly. They start with 10 and they can usually add the Philippines (2), Singapore (1), Burma (1) and a few of the islands (either New Guinea, Rabaul, Guadalcanal, Tarawa, Midway or Dutch Harbor).
That leaves the Axis with about 36 - roughly in between the 42 to win the game and the 28 to lose it before the victory level start dropping in 1943. The six additional points to win the game can sometimes be picked up in Russia (taking a couple of the big VP spaces like Leningrad, Moscow or Stalingrad), Cario or in the Pacific with a concerted Japanese effort on either India, Australia or Hawaii.
And that's to win the game early. I have seen the Axis win in Summer 1945 by hanging onto a handful of VPs in Central Europe too - the game gets really interesting of the Axis can keep it close until the VP level starts to drop and the pressure is on the Allies to advance fast. See also some of DerDiktator's posts on this subject in the Strategy section of the Forum.
Looks like a great game - hopefully you guys are enjoying yourselves!
Mark