As things stand now, I am indeed having my doubts about the viability of Allied victory in the game - so perhaps I eat my words at least a bit on this score. :| I think this is particularly so with the changes in the Pacific rules this last game (changed early Jap builds and unforted islands only basing one plane).
If the Allies are to meet or beat the precipitous drop in Axis VP levels that occurs throughout 1944, then an Italian or Jap collapse is mandated by late 1943 or early 1944 at the latest. Currently, I simply do not see that happening with decent Axis play.
If there is one thing I would put my finger on in the game that is not right, it is that the Italians are just too, too tough. Usually with little more than say a half-dozen German fighters and a few ground pieces, they typically hold off virtually the entire might of the British Empire for two years or so (1940-1941). Add to this that nobody, but nobody has so much as managed to hold, let alone even invade an Italian mainland province in - what? - say at least the last 20 games or so? I frankly cannot remember the last time Italy was successfully invaded. The only time I can remember Italy falling was sometime in one or two of the first four or five games we played when playtesting way back when. Let's also not forget that most if not all the Italian fleet pretty much survives to the game's end.
Perhaps, and I mean just by the merest margin of perhaps, that without any Axis triggers and with very exacting excellent Allied play (and which I haven't seen exactly much of in recent games), I might be wrong and Italy can be taken out, but recent history certainly backs me on this.
As always, my $0.02 worth,
dd